Teva\'s Cymbalta recall could benefit other players

Published: 15-Aug-2014

Market for treatment for depression could still be worth up to US$800m


Teva’s recall of one million bottles of Cymbalta, equivalent to 3–4 months of its sales of the drug to treat depression, has created a void in the market and has benefited players such as Citron and Prasco.

Any prolonged absence of Teva in the market is expected to help other existing players, including Sun, Lupin, Actavis and Torrent.

For players such as Dr Reddy’s and Cadila, who are preparing themselves for launch and are already late in getting to the market, the Cymbalta market continues to be lucrative with healthy pricing and a large market size.

Teva initiated the recall, worth US$30–$40m, on 3 April.

The company was the second-largest player behind Citron in terms of market share before the recall, but has lost share since. Two weeks after the recall, Citron appears to be the biggest beneficiary, capturing a large part of the void.

While Prasco has also gained, other players including Actavis, Sun, Lupin and Torrent, appear to have maintained their market shares.

Dr Reddy’s and Cadila are set to enter the market, while six generic players have entered the Cymbalta market since its launch in December 2013.

In spite of many players, the product has been in short supply, which has kept pricing at a healthy level and has only led to an 85% price erosion.

Teva officials say the Cymbalta market could still be worth in the range of $600m–$800m, and perceive it to be a large generic opportunity.

For Dr Reddy’s and Cadila, both with ANDAs, Cymbalta may still be a good opportunity given the healthy pricing. Although both Indian companies delayed their launch by six months, they introduced the drug in the US in June, along with three other players – Alembic, Apotex, Breckenridge.

Earlier, Citron, Sun, Lupin, Torrent, Actavis and Teva shared first-to-file status and enjoyed 180-day exclusivity with very healthy pricing and only 80% price erosion, primarily due to limited competition and product shortages.

Multiple Indian players have benefited and more entrants are possible.

In the last quarter, Sun Pharmaceutical, with 6% share, Lupin (15% share), Citron (24%) and Torrent Pharma (9%) were successful with the product.

The current quarter could be similar or even better after Teva’s recall.

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