Global Type 1 diabetes treatment market to double to US$13.6bn by 2023, says GlobalData

US will remain biggest T1D treatment market with an average insulin price five to six times higher than other major countries

The global treatment market for Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) will expand from US$6.6bn in 2013 to an estimated $13.6bn by 2023, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.6%, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.

The company’s latest report, PharmaPoint: Type 1 Diabetes – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023, expects growth to be driven primarily by increasing T1D incidence across the eight major markets of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada and by the substantially higher annual cost of therapy in the US.

The US had a 74% share of the global T1D treatment market in 2013 with revenue of $4.8bn. GlobalData forecasts that this share will rise to 78% to 2023, with the market expanding at a CAGR of 8.2% to reach $10.5bn.

US will remain the leading market largely due to its average insulin price, which is about five to six times higher than in the other major markets

Valentina Gburcik, GlobalData’s Therapy Director of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Disorders, says the US will remain the leading market largely due to its average insulin price, which is about five to six times higher than in the other major markets. Sanofi’s Lantus is $1,621 in the US, for example, compared with around $320 in EU countries.

In addition, Gburcik says the uptake of novel ultra-long-acting insulin analogues and ultra-rapid formulations of insulin analogues, and adjunct therapies for T1D in the US market will help to offset the dip in sales caused by the patent expiries of seven insulin products by 2023.

GlobalData’s report expects that human insulins and insulin analogues will remain front-line therapies for T1D, as none of the treatments on the horizon for the next 10 years will have the capacity to enable full regeneration of pancreatic beta cells.

But Gburcik notes that therapies currently used for Type 2 Diabetes (T2D), namely GLP-1 RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors, are expected to be approved for T1D from around 2017 and they will have a considerable impact on the global T1D market by 2023, accounting for 9% and 11%, respectively.

These therapies will not compete with the insulins, as they will be prescribed as adjunct, add-on treatments. They will be used particularly in obese T1D patients and those with a mixed T1D/T2D phenotype, says Gburcik.

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