Sales of generic HIV drugs to double by 2019

8-Jul-2010

Patent expiries will halve existing HIV drug sales, says Datamonitor

Sales of generic HIV drugs will double to more than US$1.2bn by 2019, representing 10% of total antiretroviral drug sales, according to industry analyst Datamonitor.

Rising patient populations, increasing life expectancy for HIV patients and improved testing will push up demand for products over the period, Datamonitor said. However, patent expiries and pressures on governments to reduce healthcare spending could see sales of existing HIV drugs halved to about US$6bn by 2019.

Pipeline drugs are expected to experience a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 172% between the 2011 launch of Tibotec Pharmaceuticals/Johnson & Johnson’s rilpivirine and the end of the forecast period.

‘We expect sales of current pipeline products to reach over US$7bn,’ said Datamonitor’s healthcare analyst Nele Jensen.

Patent expiries of drugs such as Sustiva (efavirenz) and Epivir (lamivudine), as well as pressure on doctors to prescribe generic drugs to reduce costs, will increase generic sales in the seven major markets in the next few years, added Jensen.

‘A current abundance of efficacious HIV treatment options means that convenience is becoming an increasingly important factor in therapy.

‘Consequently, the development of pipeline cross-class fixed dose combinations (FDCs) will be the key strategy to ensuring market share for HIV drug developers over the next decade,’ he said.

Datamonitor predicts that FDCs will represent three of the four top-selling drugs in 2019 (the fourth being Truvada), with a market share of 49% in the seven major markets.

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