Chinese pharma market will reach US$116.8bn by 2015
Further growth to 2022 from cancer, diabetes and CNS drugs, forecasts Visiongain
The Chinese pharmaceutical market will experience sustained double-digit growth over the next decade, driven by state investment in the national healthcare system, a new report by Visiongain finds.
Revenues will rise to US$116.8bn in 2015 and increase further to 2022 according to the Chinese Pharmaceutical Market 2012-2022 report, published this month by the London-based business information company.
In 2010, the Chinese market for pharmaceuticals was worth $53.3bn, nearly a quarter of which came from anti-infective drugs. With the region’s chronic disease burden increasing, and its population ageing, revenue from 2012 to 2022 will increasingly come from treatments for cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Sales of vaccines will also contribute to the overall growth, the report notes.
The study predicts that the Chinese pharmaceutical market will overtake that of Japan in size by the end of next year. Growth will be driven by the Chinese government’s Healthy China 2020 plan that will see US$1.4 trillion invested in pharmaceuticals by 2020.
The Chinese market is currently dominated by prescribed generic drugs, which accounted for 67% of the market ($35.6bn) in 2010.
Patented brand-name products made up only 4.1% of the overall market in 2010, but this share will rise to 7.9% by the end of 2022.
Traditional Chinese medicines will continue to be a growth industry, although they will lose market share (from 13.9% to 9.9%) over the forecast period. Over the counter (OTC) medicines will increase their market share from 15.2% in 2010 to 22.6% in 2022.
Analyst Dr James Evans says: ‘In recent years, China has been the best hope for the pharmaceutical industry, as thinning r&d pipelines, patent expiries and regulatory tightening leave growth in the developed markets slow at best and sclerotic at worst.
‘Every leading company is outsourcing operations to China, building contacts, partnerships and infrastructure, and adjusting its portfolio to that country. The main question is whose business activities will pay off best this decade.’
China is an increasingly important region for outsourced manufacturing and research in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly as a manufacturer of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). It is also an important destination for clinical trials and other areas such as biotechnological research, being prominent in biomarkers, genomic sequencing and regenerative medicine. It is also the largest market for biosimilars.