Going from strength to strength
With its approval and subsequent launch Abbott/Cambridge Antibody Technology's Humira was the first fully-human monoclonal antibody (MAb) to enter a major market.
Wood Mackenzie analyst David Milroy believes that Humira sales will significantly expand the therapeutic MAb market over the coming years. The company forecasts that this market will reach almost US$9bn (€8.3bn) by 2005, a CAGR (2001-2005) of 25%. 'With growth of this magnitude, MAbs will clearly be a key growth segment within the pharma industry', said Dr Milroy.
Wood Mackenzie recently undertook a broad review of the leading MAb companies which showed that MAbs are clearly emerging as a major force in certain therapeutic areas such as oncology and the inflammatory/autoimmune diseases. Indeed, Genentech/Roche's two oncology MAbs, Herceptin and Rituxan, are good examples of the impact that antibodies are having on the pharma industry.
The true impact that these oncology antibodies are having on the oncology field only becomes apparent when their sales are compared with the sales revenue generated by the industry's leading oncology companies. Wood Mackenzie believes that Genentech's oncology franchise, (i.e. Herceptin and Rituxan), will generate combined sales greater than those of Bristol-Myers Squibb's oncology franchise and will vie with AstraZeneca, Novartis and Amgen's oncology franchises for sector leadership in 2005.
Dr Milroy believes that 2003 looks like being a significant year for the MAb market. Not only are existing products forecast to deliver strong growth but new products such as Corixa/GlaxoSmithKline's Bexxar, Genentech/Xoma's Raptiva and Novartis/Genentech/Tanox' Xolair are expected to reach the market as well.
'Humira, Raptiva and Xolair are all targeting potentially large markets and are thus likely to fuel significant growth in the MAb market over the next few years,' explains Dr Milroy.
Like the technology, the MAb sector is evolving. In addition to the recognised shortage in manufacturing capacity a number of market challenges and dynamics will set the scene for 2003 and beyond. These include large pharma's growing interest in the MAb sector, the settlement of IP litigation, the re-examination of business models and the sourcing of targets.