New potential blockbusters in Europe are driving future growth, says new report from Evaluate
The European pharmaceutical market is set to grow from €169 billion in 2015 to €206bn in 2022, according to a new report from life science market intelligence firm Evaluate. The compound annual growth rate over the period is 3.2%.
The report, Pharmaceutical Innovation in Europe, suggests this growth will be largely a result of innovations in oncology, although important advances are also emerging in other therapy areas including multiple sclerosis, chronic heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis and Alzheimer’s disease.
According to the report, Humira (predicted 2022 sales of €1.5bn) will lose its number one position to Xarelto (predicted 2022 sales of €2.6bn) as the top selling drug in Europe by 2022, but is expected to keep its market leadership position in spite of biosimilar threats.
Xarelto is expected to head the bestseller list, strongly supported by analysts’ consensus (worldwide sales in 2022 anticipated at about $8bn) and fuelled by the expected expansion into follow-on indications such as chronic heart failure.
The report expects that the hepatitis C storm will slowly fade away as Sovaldi (2015 sales of €1.4bn are expected to falling to sales of €609m in 2022) and Harvoni (2015 sales of €2bn are expected to dip to 2022 sales of €887m) will be affected by increasing pricing pressure and a reduction in the number of addressable patients, says the Evaluate report.
Cancer drugs will lead the game with five compounds in the top 10, all of which are coming from recent development activities, with the exception of Herceptin (2015 sales of €2.1bn to 2022 sales of €1.38bn), which is expected to lose ground due to the anticipated launch of competing biosimilars.
In the respiratory area, while some new innovations are slowly surfacing (e.g. GSK’s Nucala with predicted 2022 sales of €407m), generic competition will force the respiratory blockbusters – Spiriva (2015 sales of €1.42bn and 2022 sales of €676m) and Seretide/Advair (2015 sales of €1.5bn and 2022 sales of €675m) – out of the top selling elite, the report forecasts.
Copies of the report, Pharmaceutical Innovation in Europe, can be downloaded here.