According to Evaluate’s annual industry report, the “EvaluatePharma World Preview 2018, Outlook to 2024”, the rare disease space is predicted to capture 20% of the total $1.2trn market in 2024.
Evaluate provides commercial intelligence including product sales and consensus forecasts for commercial teams and their advisors within the global life science industry.
Supporting the growth of orphan drugs are the launches of novel therapies, including gene and cell therapies, as well as increased access to medicines globally.
Evaluate’s report also highlights factors that could act as a brake on industry growth, including the threat of biosimilarsfor some of the industry’s biggest products. The report shows $251bn of sales at risk between 2018 and 2024, teeing up a second patent cliff for the industry.
Additional findings from the report include:
- R&D spend is forecast at 16.9% of prescription sales in 2024, down from 20.9% in 2017, suggesting a focus on improving R&D efficiencies, or companies directing less revenue towards replenishing pipelines.
- Oncology continues to be a key industry driver, with a forecasted CAGR of 12% from 2017 to 2024.
- Novartis will be the leading prescription drug company in 2024 with sales of $53.2bn, ahead of Pfizer and Roche, both of whom are closely competing for the second spot.
- Vertex’s triple combination, VX-659 + tezacaftor + ivacaftor, is anticipated to be the most valuable project in the pharmaceutical industry pipeline, with a Net Present Value of $13,070 million.
Download the full report at www.evaluate.com/PharmaWorldPreview2018.