Worldwide prescription drug sales forecast to grow 6.3%
But political pressure over pricing could put a damper on uninerrupted growth, report warns
Global prescription sales are forecast to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% over the next six years, according to the EvaluatePharma World Preview 2016, Outlook to 2022 report from life science market intelligence firm, Evaluate. The annual report provides an overview of the sector including key trends in prescription drug sales, patent risk, global brand sales, market performance by therapy area, R&D spend, pharma innovation analysis and consensus forecasts to 2022.
But the combination of increasingly vocal politicians railing against US drug pricing, a weak global recovery, uncertainties created by Brexit, and the outcome of the US presidential race have all coalesced to create uncertainty.
'Most of this projected growth is driven by a number of new products that will come onto the market in the next seven years,' said Antonio Iervolino, Head of Forecasting, Evaluate. 'However, there are several issues that could spoil this rosy picture of uninterrupted growth, including political scrutiny over pricing.
'As a result of this we expect companies to continue investing in pricing models strongly tied to real world benefits and consistently incorporate pricing and market access discussions at a much earlier stage in the clinical development process. So, while currently the industry does have plenty to celebrate, there are potential brakes on progress that could make the outlook much more mixed.'
The report also predicts US$169bn in additional prescription drug sales in 2022 to come from R&D projects, while worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend is expected to grow by 2.8% CAGR to $182bn in 2022.
Novartis and Roche will compete head-to-head to lead worldwide prescription drug sales in 2022, it says, although Pfizer could challenge them following the Medivation acquisition. Oncology will remain the largest therapy area in terms of sales, with a 12.5% CAGR from 2016 to 2022.