Industry forecasts from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) suggest that the market for branded treatments targeting multiple myeloma is expected to expand to $33bn by 2030, driven by a surge in Johnson & Johnson (J&J) and Genmab’s Darzalex, as well as the increase in development of antibody redirecting drugs that target these malignant cell types.
However, to make way for the expansion of Darzalex’s market share, it’s likely that Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Revlimid will see a significant loss in sales, with the company expected to make $189m — as opposed to the 2023 figure of $6bn.
Expediting therapy availability
The current treatment landscape, as well as the unmet needs in the multiple myeloma patient population, has allowed many immune-targeted therapies to achieve accelerated drug approval from the FDA.
However, there is still a significant gap in the market as myeloma is commonly associated with multiple relapses; it’s also not yet considered to be curable.
The FDA’s Accelerated Approval pathway has resulted in the release of 12 of the 17 myeloma drugs that have been in contention since 2003, nine of which are still on the market.
Three had to be withdrawn owing to adverse side-effects, the infeasibility of completing postmarketing clinical trials or because of an unsuccessful confirmatory Phase III trial — as was the case with GSK’s Blenrep.
Almost half of the market in 2030 will be accounted for by J&J-Genmab’s Darzalex, followed by CAR-Ts
Up and coming treatments in clinical trials
Although Blenrep was previously withdrawn from the market, the therapeutic has shown promise in its latest DREAMM-7 and DREAMM-8 Phase III trials, meaning that GSK intends to refile for approval with regulatory authorities soon. Another player that may soon enter the race is Sanofi; its deal with Blackstone for SARCLISA may bring the company momentum in the space.
BI Director of Research, Global Industries, Sam Fazeli, commented: “The recent treatment innovations for multiple myeloma have been highly beneficial for those affected, with patients living more than 10 years compared with 3.5 years in the late 1990s.”
“This has bolstered drug sales, with a further 40% increase expected by 2030 based on our scenario analysis. Almost half of the market in 2030 will be accounted for by J&J-Genmab’s Darzalex, followed by CAR-Ts — divided between J&J’s CARVYKTI and Gilead-Arcellx’s anito-cel. 
Sam Fazeli, BI Director of Research, Global Industries
Several bispecific antibody hopefuls will rival J&J’s TECVAYLI and Talvay too. The market for small molecule drugs is also being hit by generic entry.”
“The most significant near-term clinical candidates in the multiple myeloma space are GSK’s Blenrep, as well as Gilead-Arcellx’s anito-cel, a CAR-T therapy in Phase II trials (iMMAgine-1). Anito-cel could be a potential competitive to J&J and Legend’s CARVYKTI and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Abecma."
"Looking further out, the largest drugs in the market — Darzalex and Darzalex Faspro — are both eligible for Medicare-negotiated pricing under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) starting in 2029 and 2034, respectively; but Faspro may be negotiated along with Darzalex.”
