It is that time of year when a significant proportion of the population of the northern hemisphere will fall prey to a minor seasonal illness. And despite the admonition of governments and healthcare experts, for many a trip to the doctor to seek a course of antibiotics will be the immediate response to the first sniffle or cough.
Once viewed as a cure-all, the profligate and inappropriate use of antibiotics is largely responsible for the upsurge in multi-drug resistant bacteria, which are now viewed as a major global public health problem.
A new report by London-based business information company visiongain* predicts that between 2010 and 2022, the global market for antibacterial drugs will expand with a CAGR of 2.2%. In 2010, China was the world’s second largest market for antibacterial drugs, with antibiotics apparently accounting for 70% of all prescriptions in 2008. That market will continue to grow rapidly, despite rules introduced in 2011 to limit antibiotic drug prescription, the report says.
The fastest growing class of antibacterial drug will be carbapenems, according to visiongain, not least because of their low susceptibility to bacterial resistance. But carbapenems are the last line of defence to treat infections with multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria such as Klebsiella pneumoniae and E. coli.
And the outlook is not good. The percentage of carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae is increasing in the EU and has already spread across several countries – a trend that is likely to accelerate with the transfer of patients across borders. Several member states are now reporting that between 15% and 50% of K. pneumoniae from bloodstream infections are resistant to carbapenems.
Nor do there seem to be many new antibiotics in the pipeline. The prospect of these reaching blockbuster status is unlikely, the report says, because of the high level of generic competition expected.
More responsible prescribing of antibiotics will not be enough on its own to resolve the growing crisis. Unless more r&d effort is devoted to this class of drugs, we may one day open the door and find that the drug cupboard is bare.
*Antibacterial Drugs: World Market Prospects 2012-2022, published in November 2011
