Patent protection of major depression drugs set to drive growth in EU and Japan
Although the growth of generic medicines will have a negative impact on the major depression drug market in the US, patent protection of key blockbuster drugs will help drive market growth in Europe and Japan through to 2018, analysis by Decision Resources has found.
Although the growth of generic medicines will have a negative impact on the major depression drug market in the US, patent protection of key blockbuster drugs will help drive market growth in Europe and Japan through to 2018, analysis by Decision Resources has found.
The latest Pharmacor report, Major Depressive Disorder, predicts that sales of therapies for major depression in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan will increase by US$500m (Euro 354m) from 2008 to 2018. This growth will be attributable to increasing diagnosis and drug treatment rates in these countries and the patent protection of key drugs, including Lexapro from Lundbeck/Forest and Cymbalta/Xeristar from Eli Lilly/Boehringer Ingelheim.
In contrast, the US market will decline by US$1.4bn over the same decade, owing primarily to widespread generic erosion of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) such as Lexapro, and serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs) such as Wyeth's Effexor XR.
The report also finds that the atypical antipsychotics drug class, driven by sales of Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka Pharmaceutical's Abilify and AstraZeneca's Seroquel/Seroquel XR, will reach peak-year sales of just under US$1.5bn in 2013 in the major depression market. While patient share for atypical antipsychotics will continue to grow after 2013, generic erosion will constrain overall sales to 2018.
Emerging agents such as Servier/Novartis's Valdoxan/Thymonax, Lundbeck/Takeda's Lu-AA21004, Eli Lilly's LY-2216684, Clinical Data's vilazodone and Labopharm/Angelini Group's trazodone CR will be used predominately as second- and third-line therapies for major depression, according to the report. As a result, these drugs will gain a combined patient share in 2018 of nearly 20% in the US, Europe and Japan. Although some emerging drugs will gain market share, developers will continue to face significant obstacles in the major depression market.
"The challenge of developing new agents with improved efficacy and/or tolerability over current antidepressants remains a significant hurdle in major depression," said Decision Resources" analyst Alana Simorellis. "This is exemplified by the late-stage clinical trial failures of Sanofi-Aventis's saredutant and amibegron and NeuroSearch/GlaxoSmithKline's triple reuptake inhibitor."